Consilience Publishes New Report

Last week, The Consilience Group (That's me!) completed and delivered to Sports Business Research its latest report on the future of physical fitness and sports--"Physical Activity Trends: Business and Policy Implications, 2007 edition." It is for sale to entities that are not full-price, Sports Business Research (SBRnet) subscribers. To order, you can call me, Ken Harris, at 301-657-3731 or email me at kenharris39@mac.com. The report will be available to SBRnet, full-price subscribers at no extra charge.

The report is divided into the following sections: Executive Summary; Key Facts showing that exercise is essential for good health but noting that many people worldwide do not exercise enough for good health; Causes, showing the reasons why many children and adolescents and adults do not exercise enough for good health; Counterforces discussing the many factors working against the trend for people not to exercise sufficiently; Scenarios illustrating how this trend could play out in the future; and Sports and Fitness Organization strategies discussing in detail what sports and fitness organizations should do in light of the trend and alternative scenarios.

The strategies section contains a plan for sports and fitness organizations to watch developments to help them assess what future is actually unfolding--an activity futurists call Environmental Scanning.

Despite the pessimistic tone in the news media about people being too fat and inactive, the report is actually quite optimistic about the future of physical activity. However, some key things have to happen for this favorable future to be realized.

1. Parents must play a key role in getting their children to be physically active. They must lobby for strong physical education programs in schools at all grade levels including high school and for saving outdoor recess in elementary school at a time when schools are under budgetary pressure and pressure to devote more time to academic subjects without lengthening the school day. They must limit the time their children watch TV and play passive computer games; this includes getting TVs out of the children's bedrooms. They must work to see that children's sports programs below the high school varsity level are geared to participation and fun rather than winning. They can see how to do this by visiting the Mom's Team website and by reading Home Team Advantage: The Critical Role of Mothers in Youth Sports by Mom's Team Editor in Chief Brooke de Lench, and they should set an example by being active themselves.

2. Media messages about the importance of exercise should be as frequent and well thought out as those against smoking and drug use. American Sports Data surveys consistently show that most Americans recognize the value of exercise even if they don't exercise enough.

3. Adults must recognize that they cannot get enough exercise for good health without devoting some of their leisure time to it. Studies show that most adults, even parents of minor children, do have enough leisure time to exercise enough for good health, but most do not devote much time to it. Our grandparents and great-grandparents did not have to worry about enough exercise; most of them did physical labor and a fair amount of walking for transport. Now the situation is different. The design of our cities, where most people in the US and the world live, to accomodate transport by car eliminates walking and biking as modes of transport for most people; automation and mechanization of the home eliminate much of the physical effort that used to be required for domestic chores; and more and more paid employment involves sedentary tasks.